With each passing storm of 2023, there seems to be a new, even heftier one, to take its place. From my optimistic vantage point, the rain has been incredibly helpful - filling up our reservoirs and building up snowpacks in the Sierras. While it is disruptive, and at times perilous, one can imagine how beautiful our surrounds will be when the rains have finally moved on. Just today, during a break from the rain, the air felt warmer, and smelled a touch sweeter.
Much like the stormy weather, the Real Estate market remains enveloped in clouds with intermittent signs of clearing. When the murkiness will lift is anyone’s guess, but like any weather system, it will eventually pass. January is notoriously slow as people shake off the holidays and get back into normal flow, but the addition of the weather likely means it will take additional time for new inventory to appear. Outside prep work will naturally be delayed along with photography and other listing components. Compounding anxiety is the fact that sales volume was down roughly 35% in the 4thquarter of 2022.
On the sunnier side of the forecast, interest rates are down from their highs in late October and there are signs that inflation is slowing. There is the potential that these factors, amongst others, like a recession, will send rates lower in time for Spring market. In many respects, the perceived strength of the market will hinge on inventory levels. If enough new inventory surfaces, there appears to be enough buyer demand to keep the market steady. If too much inventory surfaces, then we are likely to see prices slide. Currently, judging from my own clientele and in speaking with colleagues, there is a back log of buyers waiting for new inventory. Until we reach some saturation with inventory, I would not expect to see prices fall too much, if at all. Good offerings should sell quickly.
In closing, it is comforting that bad weather is a harbinger for new growth. The same can be said of the Real Estate market – when the outlook is gloomy, stay the course, and opportunity is sure to arise.
Wishing you all a happy & healthy 2023!
Jon
If you, or someone you know, has suffered any damage or is in need any assistance due to the storms, please don't hesitate to reach out. I will do my best to help.
