The Marin real estate market is off to an optimistic start in 2026-one might even say there’s a palpable buzz in the air. After plodding through sluggish sales activity the last few years, it’s fair to wonder whether these feelings are an overreaction, but there are definite signs that a fundamental shift is underway.
Let’s look at interest rates. Rates have come down meaningfully and are now hovering around 6% for a 30-year fixed mortgage, compared to nearly 7% at this time last year. Buyers and sellers spent much of 2024 and 2025 coming to terms with higher borrowing costs, and many had already begun cautiously re-entering the market last year. Today’s lower rates are further easing the pressure for both sides, unlocking activity that had been on hold.
Perhaps even more encouraging: buyer demand may finally be met with actual inventory. Yes, I said it. While Marin is no stranger to tight supply, there are clear signs of improvement.Agents, stagers, and tradespeople are all reporting increased activity. As we move through the coming weeks, we should see a steady rise in new listings, building toward the peak selling season in May. I am also seeing signs of new buyers entering the market coupled with the standard pent-up demand we find at this time of the year.
AI continues to play an increasingly significant role in our market. The local job market remains uncertain, and tech layoffs continue to make headlines, but there is another side to that coin. New millionaires and billionaires are being created at a record pace, and that influx of wealth is translating into renewed strength in the luxury segment of the Marin marketplace.
What’s particularly notable is that, for the first time in nearly three years, both the luxury cash market and the first-time homebuyer market appear to be on solid footing at the same time.
And finally, while we can’t predict the weather, this beautiful January stretch certainly isn’t hurting what’s shaping up to be a strong first quarter for Marin buyers and sellers alike.
If you have any real estate goals you’d like to discuss for 2026, then let's connect! Now is the time to plan and prepare and I would love to help in any way I can.
My best,
Jon
